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Wow, this episode is sure generating some discussion...and probably for good reason.

I gotta say that I am thrilled that Ozzy is gone simply because there was always that lingering fear of him running the tables. He was so arrogant and so steadfastly self-confident that he just deserved to go down and go down hard. In All Stars, I tended to like the same people both the first and second times around. In general, my perceptions of most of the players didn't really deteriorate- but I did a complete 180 on Ozzy this season. In Cook Islands, I was rooting for him up until he got that strange edit at the end where it seemed like they were trying to make him more deserving of a win than Yul (which woudl've been a travesty). Here Ozzy definitely stepped up his game and tried to play, but he's just not good at it and he was taken out by smarter players who saw a good opportunity when it arose. Cirie in particular is impressing me this season because she's playing the exact same game and getting away with it! She's in control secretly of every vote and she's playing aggressively- when there's something that she wants, she works to get it done (Courtney and Shane boots in S12, Yau and Ozzy this time) and it's just fascinating that nobody sees her as a threat (though I assume Parvati will sooner than later).

Just the facial expressions from Ozzy, Amanda, Erik, and James made the whole thing worthwhile, but Eliza just put it over the top. She's apparently going to be this season's overdramatic juror who has hilarious reactions constantly (ala Frosti, Shane, Jenny, Tammy, etc.)...

As for Jason, I kind of understand what he did even though he was so stupid because the other people couldn't have made it any clearer that they had every intent of reniging on their deal. That said, I understand the principle of what Jason was trying to achieve. He assumed that there's no way he's going to win every IC and the second he loses one, he's done. So he tried to take a gamble, hope there was a chance he'd actually survive and that he'd get himself some good will in the process. Unfortunately for him, giving a little bit of food was not going to replace all his arrogance and lack of any cohernet strategy through the entire game until that point. Jason's playing pretty poorly and he's going to have trouble from here on out....Major credit to Parvati for hanging in there for six+ hours to outlast Jason when she was in the safest position at that point of anyone in the game. She definitely went up a notch in my book for that...

Erik at the RC was good stuff, too. It's actually nice to see someone embrace the culture and the experience on a level other than interest in food. It's a stark and pleasant contrast to the people actually complaining on a reward last season. That said, the kid is totally lost in terms of strategy and it's a shame that I can't bring myself to root for him since he's just not doing anything right now. The fact that he wasn't trusted to go against Ozzy basically shows how out of the loop he is since taking out Ozzy is good for his game since it likely places him down the pecking order behind Jason/James where he can sort of approach the endgame (F6) and let something happen. Of course he was too dumb to notice it when there was no way that Ozzy would've wanted him to go past the F6. What a waste of a character with potential.

Unfortunately, I don't see Cirie winning the game at this point. Parvati is clearly going to the F3 (we'll get to that in a moment) and once the more physical threats are out of the way, she's going to realize that Cirie has to go and Alexis and Natalie (plus whatever stragglers are left) will be the keys for her plan to take Cirie out. It still could go down the way I proposed last week where Amanda/Parv/remaining fan take out Cirie at 4, but I could see Parvati wanting to act sooner rather than later, as well. Cirie is going to have to realize the threat that Parvati's control over Alexis/Natalie represents and if she has any real chance at taking control of the game for good, she must repair her relationship with Amanda and then work hard on James. Assuming Jason goes next (as he's still the biggest threat), Cirie would have to round up Amanda/Erik/Jason to break up the Alexis/Natalie/Parvati trio, but I'm not sure she has a strong enough bond with the people in her plan to make it work. If Cirie doesn't get Alexis or Natalie out before the F6, I can pretty much guarantee that she doesn't win the game as I just don't see any reason for Parvati to let her make it to the end.

Speaking of Parvati, I don't know where I stand on the "Parvati's getting the dominant edit, she's going to win" vs. "This is the story about 'how Parvati lost'" argument. I can actually see a strong case for both sides. I'd prefer a Parvati win than a fan winning (particularly Alexis whom I used to love but now see as a total waste of space- at least Natalie seems to be playing hard. I really think that barring a late Immunity win by Alexis, Nat will be the last fan standing). Juries have voted against players out of spite before- it's why Twila, Steph, Rob and even Neleh to a certain extent all lost. But on the other hand, they've rewarded certain players who openly backstab like Brian and Todd as well. Ultimately, the difference in the two groups comes down to the respect the jury has for the finalists. And let's face it, with Eliza and Ozzy leading the way, Parvati's going to have it pretty rough on the jury. Like it or not, I just don't think they're going to consider her the type of player who should've dominated (as opposed to Cirie who wouldn't have that issue should she pull it off). A lot will come down to how Parvati handles the endgame and how brutal and ruthlessly she discards of other impediments. I'm not sure she has the tact to pull off this kind of game that we've seen executed before by players like Rafe, Cirie and even Rob C., Vecepia, Chris, Earl, Fairplay and Tina to various extents. Hmm. This should be interesting.

There's no way a male is winning this game. Erik is likeable, but hasn't shown anything. James is bound to go out mid game as he's too popular to let near the end which cancels out his value as a loyal ally and Jason is just tripping all over himself. If he survives more than one more TC, it will be a miracle. Of the ladies, here's where I think we stand:

*Alexis- Alexis is a huge threat to the other girls as she's well liked enough and respected enough that a bitter jury (towards Parvati or Cirie) could justify handing the win to her in their minds. Whether they realize she needs to go before F3 or not will be a tough call.
*Natalie- I would say Natalie is highly likely to make the Final Three simply because she has a pretty decent social game going on, isn't seen as a threat and hasn't done enough to win in front of the jury. She's probably the biggest female goat in the game.
*Amanda- Amanda has got to get back into this game, make sure everything seems right with Parvati and work very hard with Cirie. Cirie and Amanda desperately need each other at this point in the game and the foundations of a relationship are there. Amanda isn't nearly as big a threat as Parvati or Cirie, so if she's wise, she'll position herself as the lynchpin between the two and pick a side to get herself to the F3. She's on good terms with a lot of potential jurors and she has experience so a win isn't yet out of the question.
*Cirie- If Cirie gets to the Final Three, there is a very good chance she wins this game (unless they get too bitter). The problem is that she's going to have a tough time rounding up the support to make all the necessary plays because she doesn't have enough solid relationships. If she had been on Airai and had gotten close to Alexis/Natalie, this game would be a lot easier for her. The fact that they're Parvati's pawns could come back to bite her unless she's able to develop an army of her own (Amanda and Erik?)
*Parvati- Parvati will almost certainly make the Final Three as Cirie is just never going to get the numbers to take our out (unless Amanda becomes willing and then another vote is lined up towards the end, but that's unlikely). Ultimately, Parvati is the star of this season to a large extent and my mind is not yet made up on her. Is she a good player or is she an average one who is in a great position and is pushing too hard to the end? There's a smart way to play this game out and I'm not sure she's going to take it. Her performance in front of the jury will likely be the #1 determining factor in how this game will play out.

So, basically I see any of the four of them aside from Natalie winning though I think it is most likely Cirie or Parvati with Alexis running third (I have no clue where we're headed with Amanda- she could get really into it or just go into cruise control mode. We'll have to see). I'm very curious to see how this is going to end up.


And finally, the stat of the night- Amanda's record of 16 consecutive Tribal Councils voting in the majority was snapped this week. I'm pretty sure that's a Survivor record by a pretty large margin (anyone want to do the research?). However, her streak of 17 consecutive Tribal Councils without a vote cast against her remains intact and that's mindbogglingly impressive (say what you want about her as a strategist. She clearly has game...just throwing that out there)...